3 Possible Scenarios for Super Tuesday: A Santorum Grassroots Analysis

COUNT AS OF 3/5:     Santorum=73    Romney=174



SCENARIO 1: Rick Wins 6 States

[Rick wins OH, TN & OK (66-18+58+43= 149)] + [Rick wins ID, ND & AK (32+28+27= 87)] = 236
[Mitt wins MA, VA & VT (41+49+17= 107)] = 107

If we leave GA (76) out of analysis:
- Rick still takes lead w/149+87+73= 309 (ahead of Mitt by 28 without GA)
- Mitt falls to second w/107+174= 281 (w/GA in analysis, if Mitt wins GA, he would reach 357)


SCENARIO 2: Rick Wins 3 States + 50% of Delegates in 3 Proportional States
[Rick wins OH, TN & OK (66-18+58+43= 149)] + [Rick wins 50% of ID, ND & AK (32+28+27= 87 / 2 = 43 delegates)] =192
[Mitt wins MA, VA & VT (41+49+17= 107)] + [Mitt wins 50% of ID, ND & AK (32+28+27= 87 / 2 = 43 delegates)]= 150

If we leave GA (76) out of analysis:
- Rick remains in striking distance w/149+43+73= 265 (w/GA in analysis Rick, then, would need to win GA to reach 341)
- Mitt w/107+43+174= 324 (ahead of Rick by 59 without GA)


SCENARIO 3: Rick Wins Only 3 States
[Rick wins OH, TN & OK (66-18+58+43= 149)] = 149
[Mitt wins MA, VA & VT (41+49+17= 107)] + [Mitt wins ID, ND & AK (32+28+27= 87)] = 194

If we leave GA (76) out of analysis:
- Rick remains at second place w/149+73= 222 (behind Mitt by 146)
- Mitt holds lead with 107+87+174= 368 (w/GA in analysis Rick, then, would need to win GA to reach 298)


CONCLUSION (in this order):
1.) Rick must win OH.
2.) Rick must win a good number of delegates from proportional states.
3.) Rick must win 4 or more states to remain in "striking distance" after Super Tuesday.
4.) Rick must either win or have a strong showing in GA.


IMPLICATION:
1.) Make a strong case for Newt to drop out of race after a poor showing in the South.


THE ABOVE 3 SCENARIOS ONLY WORK WITH THE FOLLOWING ASSUMPTIONS:
1.) Rick wins OH.
2.) Mitt wins VA.
3.) Rick wins some or most of ID, ND & AK (with a total of 87 delegates at stake).
4.) Either Rick or Mitt win GA.
5.) Neither Newt nor Ron are viable.

WE PICK RICK!