Super Tuesday! There are 437 delegates at stake.
Let's project the following:
Rick wins Ohio (66), TN (58), and Oklahoma (43). Let's also give him ID (32), ND (28) & Alaska (27). That wins him 254 delegates.
For the sake of argument, let's say Mitt takes MA (41), VT (17) and Virgina (49) even with an aggressive write-in Santorum campaign (which we need to heavily promote). That means that Moderate Mitt takes only 107 delegates after falling to win the South. (The South ain't Michigan.)
That leaves us with Georgia (76). But let's leave Georgia out and look at the score after MI & AZ:
On 2/28, it was Romney @ 142 and Santorum @ 59.
On 3/6, if the above plays out (not including GA), then the score becomes Romney @ 249 and Santorum @ 313!
Even without Georgia, Santorum could make the Second Great Santorum Surge happen!
AND....let's not forget Washington State (43) which votes on March 3. One poll (before 2/28) projected Santorum the winner. That would put Santorum @ 356 (again without GA). And Romney would have a hard time catching up even with Georgia, under the scenario above.
(If Rick takes Georgia, Santorum's final score becomes 432 with the bonus of Gingrich finally pulling out.)
You are I know that as we were watching Michigan that we turned to someone in the room and said, "If Gingrich dropped out, then Santorum would be...well...you fill in the blank."
A key factor in this is for Gingrich to drop out. When Santorum and Romney go head-to-head, Santorum wins the day. Look at Missouri as a great example. Gingrich will drop out if he loses GA and the rest of the South.
Here's a critical analysis from CNN:
If Gingrich comes up short in the South and Romney fails to demonstrate momentum, Santorum can plausibly make the case to Republicans that he is the last conservative standing. He's already claiming that's the case, even in the wake of his Michigan loss. "It's a two-person race right now," Santorum said Tuesday. "That's pretty clear."
I am ordinary grassroots volunteer. I had to make sense of all the numbers and what you see above is my brief case for a Santorum victory after Super Tuesday. (Here are two articles I read and used: NY Times and CNN. I also used RealClearPolitics for the delegate count.)
If you were like me, you went to the Santorum sites on FB to see the scoop. I loved how Ohio Students for Rick Santorum was on the ball. That's the spirit, Ohio! Support them HERE.
Tonight, after Michigan, let's dust ourselves off. Tomorrow, we're GAME ON!
WE PICK RICK!
Let's project the following:
Rick wins Ohio (66), TN (58), and Oklahoma (43). Let's also give him ID (32), ND (28) & Alaska (27). That wins him 254 delegates.
For the sake of argument, let's say Mitt takes MA (41), VT (17) and Virgina (49) even with an aggressive write-in Santorum campaign (which we need to heavily promote). That means that Moderate Mitt takes only 107 delegates after falling to win the South. (The South ain't Michigan.)
That leaves us with Georgia (76). But let's leave Georgia out and look at the score after MI & AZ:
On 2/28, it was Romney @ 142 and Santorum @ 59.
On 3/6, if the above plays out (not including GA), then the score becomes Romney @ 249 and Santorum @ 313!
Even without Georgia, Santorum could make the Second Great Santorum Surge happen!
AND....let's not forget Washington State (43) which votes on March 3. One poll (before 2/28) projected Santorum the winner. That would put Santorum @ 356 (again without GA). And Romney would have a hard time catching up even with Georgia, under the scenario above.
(If Rick takes Georgia, Santorum's final score becomes 432 with the bonus of Gingrich finally pulling out.)
You are I know that as we were watching Michigan that we turned to someone in the room and said, "If Gingrich dropped out, then Santorum would be...well...you fill in the blank."
A key factor in this is for Gingrich to drop out. When Santorum and Romney go head-to-head, Santorum wins the day. Look at Missouri as a great example. Gingrich will drop out if he loses GA and the rest of the South.
Here's a critical analysis from CNN:
If Gingrich comes up short in the South and Romney fails to demonstrate momentum, Santorum can plausibly make the case to Republicans that he is the last conservative standing. He's already claiming that's the case, even in the wake of his Michigan loss. "It's a two-person race right now," Santorum said Tuesday. "That's pretty clear."
I am ordinary grassroots volunteer. I had to make sense of all the numbers and what you see above is my brief case for a Santorum victory after Super Tuesday. (Here are two articles I read and used: NY Times and CNN. I also used RealClearPolitics for the delegate count.)
If you were like me, you went to the Santorum sites on FB to see the scoop. I loved how Ohio Students for Rick Santorum was on the ball. That's the spirit, Ohio! Support them HERE.
Tonight, after Michigan, let's dust ourselves off. Tomorrow, we're GAME ON!
WE PICK RICK!
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