Today, Tuesday, February 28, 2012, is election day for the primaries in Michigan and Arizona. I'm excited.
I just want to make a quick point about Colorado and polling.
A day before the Colorado primary, reliable polls reported that Santorum was down by as much as 10 points. I raise this here because we shouldn't rely on the polls. Polls are merely snapshots at a particular time and population sample with a presumed inference that the results are applicable to the general population.
Hmmmm.....
They are not the voting booth and the ballot.
And while nice predictors, they do not capture one key aspect of the American electorate. And that is their heart. There are only, as I said, some degree of being predictors. A poll captures cold data, but the ballot captures the choice of the voter.
People said Rick was going to lose Colorado, and he won. Rick seemed pleasantly surprised when he did.
The lesson for us is that we need to rally people with solid values to get out the vote during this primary season. That is the first lesson and Rule Number One: Get out the vote for your candidate, in this case, Rick Santorum.
The second lesson is, like the old Karate Kid movie back in the 80s, to: First learn rule number one.
So the next time you hear that Santorum is down by double digit points, just remember Colorado and remember how the pundits said Santorum was not going to win Colorado.
Mitt even had his speech before the official results were in confident that he had won Colorado. After the official results came in, my wife said to me, "How embarrassing for him." It was the first time I felt sorry for Mitt.
That's what the polls tell me, Mitt said. He went in confident in Colorado.
And. look. what. happened.
I just want to make a quick point about Colorado and polling.
A day before the Colorado primary, reliable polls reported that Santorum was down by as much as 10 points. I raise this here because we shouldn't rely on the polls. Polls are merely snapshots at a particular time and population sample with a presumed inference that the results are applicable to the general population.
Hmmmm.....
They are not the voting booth and the ballot.
And while nice predictors, they do not capture one key aspect of the American electorate. And that is their heart. There are only, as I said, some degree of being predictors. A poll captures cold data, but the ballot captures the choice of the voter.
People said Rick was going to lose Colorado, and he won. Rick seemed pleasantly surprised when he did.
The lesson for us is that we need to rally people with solid values to get out the vote during this primary season. That is the first lesson and Rule Number One: Get out the vote for your candidate, in this case, Rick Santorum.
The second lesson is, like the old Karate Kid movie back in the 80s, to: First learn rule number one.
So the next time you hear that Santorum is down by double digit points, just remember Colorado and remember how the pundits said Santorum was not going to win Colorado.
Mitt even had his speech before the official results were in confident that he had won Colorado. After the official results came in, my wife said to me, "How embarrassing for him." It was the first time I felt sorry for Mitt.
That's what the polls tell me, Mitt said. He went in confident in Colorado.
And. look. what. happened.
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